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The Year of the Rat
Well it is the time for predictions and yearly ruminations when we are all more susceptible to the words of vibrating futurologists. It’s a good omen then that The Year of the Rat is upon us. The Rat is an entrepreneurial, enterprising character with a start-up mentality supported by hard work, activity, and renewal. The Rat establishes ventures not for fast returns but for planned sustainable growth: Bring on the Rat!
It is also no coincidence then that this year should be year that digital entrepreneurs in China get busy and produce some interesting and innovative results. This will also be the year that we see the rise of the Mobile Web globally and especially in China. I must confess that these are not really predictions but more observations.
Remember WAP?
I recall the hype which surrounded, lets call it: Mobile Web 1.0. This was back in the .com crazy days at the turn of the 21st century [sounds a long time ago doesn't it] and they called it WAP. I know WAP is quite a lame name but it was hyped as the promised messiah which would emancipate us all into the heavenly realm of the Mobile Internet. WAP handsets became the hottest consumer electronics products and were cached under countless Christmas trees all over Europe as the fashionable item for Christmas 2000 and icon for the new century.
Needless to say WAP was the poster child for over hyping and under delivering and symptomatic of a growing unhealthiness within the dotcom project. WAP failed to deliver the promise and the value chain between consumer and provider was simply not reliable and not extensible - many providers adopted a “Walled Garden” approach.
This brings us back to China and the Mobile Web: What makes WAP different this time around and why will the Mobile Web be important this year? Let me remind you of the Rat, the industrious character who is building today for tomorrow, which means efforts started this year will impact upon many years to come.
Significant Trends
The best way to peek into the immediate future is to identify significant trends:
- Increase in VC funding is expected in China due to economic recession in the US - mobile 3G apps are expected to be strong contenders
- Surge in the mobile subscriber base to over 530 mln and active WAP users to over 40 mln
- Convergence of gaming with mobile
- Strengthening of mobile payment processing
- Strengthening of Mobile Web application development & convergence with Web 2.0 applications
- Widening of mobile device consumer market
- Installation of 2D reading software by China Mobile on all their new handsets
Convergence is Key
This is the year I expect these trends to converge and crystallize into a mobile momentum which will create the framework for China’s future Mobile Web. Some of the larger brands have been looking at mobile and are still in beta mode. Going mobile will be a natural step for many Web 2.0 providers, and QQ is already setting the pace. Mobile Web is poised to become a significant Digital channel from many perspectives and once it gathers pace it will rise as a significant force.
I will be writing more on the growth of the Mobile Web here in China as there are a number of areas such as marketing, content/functionality, and gaming, to name a few, which require their own posts to do them justice.
